What are the odds of guessing on a multiple choice test?

If you don't know the answers to any questions on a multiple choice test with four choices per question: A, B, C, and D, are you better off guessing the same letter for each question than you are "mixing it up" and guessing different letters for each question? Why?

What are the odds of guessing on a multiple choice test?
1/4





By guessing the same letter for each question


you will at least get some right
Reply:The odds either way are the same. This however may be affected by human test preparation error. Some test makers are more likely to produce tests with a certain letter choice appearing more frequently. There was a standardized test a while back on which a study was conducted showing this.





In your case however, assume that there is no human factor. If this is done than all letters that are possible on each question have equal probability than any other answer.
Reply:Your odds remain the same regardless of choosing one letter, or mixing it up.





Your teacher may have random answers for (a,b,c,d) so if you guess only one letter you may get some right.





I had a teacher who made it so that on one of our test the answer was always "a". No one in the class got 100% because they were convinced some answers had to be wrong because only "a" kept appearing on their paper. So students deliberately chose the wrong answers.





My best advice would be to at least try and eliminate 1 or 2 answers when guessing. This will at least improve your odds of guessing the right answer.
Reply:Hi,





Assuming the test has random answers only one of the answers out of 4 is correct. So it doesn't matter which one you choose you have a probably of 1/4 (favorable outcomes /total out comes) or odds of 1 to 3 (favorable outcomes / unfavorable outcomes) that it is correct. So if you choose all A's for example it is the same as mixing them up..





Hope This Helps!
Reply:Assuming that it is a truly random answer key, you are better off picking all the same.





Reason:





let's say that I pick A





probability that A is right: 1/4





Thus, if test is random, the probability that you will not have gotten an answer correct is...





after question 1: 75%


after question 2: 56%


after question 3: 42%


after question 4: 31%





and so on





If answers are mixed, this pretty pattern does not always hold true.
Reply:someone told me that it's better to only use one answer for all the questions that you don't know the answer to, and that it's better to guess B or C because teachers don't want to put the answer first or last. then again i guess it depends on if they made the answers themselves. probaby better off studying though, i should more often lol
Reply:First off if you guess your odds isn't alway 25% it changes


first answer of guessing is 25% or 1/4 *1 then the second answer is 12.5% or 1/4*2... I don't know what to say but i guess it depends if its multiple your screwed guess no matter what b.c you have a low changes of getting the right answer. if its true false keep with one answer....and if it's matching or fill in the blank your just plain screwed...next time study
Reply:The two strategies are not very different in principle without a knowledge of the distribution of the answers. One cannot be sure which method will produce a better outcome. This goes to show the truth of the saying that "knowledge is power".
Reply:Always choose "C" as the answer if you have absolutely NO CLUE as to the answer, I know people will probably give me thumbs down, but it has been studied and PROVED that the majority of answers are "C", based on testing.
Reply:Yeah, if you have no idea then theoretically you have a 25% chance of getting it right regardless. When coming to probability, each question is separate.
Reply:Technically, the odds remain 25% chance on each question whether you stick with the same letter or not. No matter what you do, your guess will always have a 25% chance of being correct.
Reply:honestly, it is all 25%chances of getting it correct.


however, personally, i think that there are less chances of getting it correct if u guess A and D
Reply:Depends on how the teacher makes the test. Some teachers make the tests more random than others. Sorry but you're better off studying :(
Reply:You have a 25% chance of getting it right and a 75% chance of getting it wrong if you have no idea.